The results of the "riots" seen . Hordes of refugees, including many exiles from the country's prisons (and certainly not the creme de la creme) and affiliated with Al Qaeda taking advantage of the situation to reach Europe via Italy. But the important thing is that the U.S. administration to get what he wants to remove uncomfortable allies with new allies from the face cleaner. The problem is that in Egypt, unlike Tunisia, where Islamic fundamentalism is small, there are the Muslim Brotherhood, a fundamentalist training wonderful program which could seriously take over in the chaos of post-Mubarak. Needless to understand which part of the Egyptian population would make the expenditure, the Coptic minority, already discriminated against, would be in great trouble when the rise of Islamists. But let the word Marcello Foa, that does an excellent summary of the matter
how to win wars in the era of globalization? Moving armies? Sometimes yes, but the result is not always satisfactory and the costs often outweigh the benefits. George Bush knows something about that in 2001 he railed against the Taliban in Afghanistan and in 2003 against Saddam in Iraq. We are in 2011, those conflicts still last and the final victory is not assured. If America had used other methods, probably would have saved thousands of lives, many billions of dollars and achieved more concrete and lasting results.
is the lesson he has learned Barack Obama, who is actually fighting the same war Bush in the sense that it supports the strategic aims. What did George W? Exporting democracy and, above all, replace decaying regimes in the Middle East, supported by leaders unpopular regimes with more respectable and more reliable leader. Think about it: it's exactly what Barack Obama proposes in Egypt and Tunisia. A change is the method.
The current occupant of the White House opts for soft power and the continuation of the techniques used in Ukraine, Georgia and Serbia in the first half of the twenty-first century. Remember the student protests that forced Milosevic in Belgrade to escape? And the exciting Orange Revolution in Kiev? Against Shevardnadze and the pink? Then the media were so excited, enhancing the revenge of the people today, however, we know - documents in hand - that those riots were not spontaneous at all, but carefully prepared and skillfully poke by private companies with public relations, acting on behalf of the Department State. Washington understood that, acting with due care, the square could be used to their advantage.
The same is happening in recent weeks in Tunisia and Egypt. Not limited to official statements, some are mandatory and are part of a party game. Ask yourself, rather ... Who decided to revolt and now first in Tunis to Cairo? The army, which he refused to fire on the crowd, legitimizing the demands of protesters. And who are linked Egyptian and Tunisian military leaders? Firmly to the United States. Who's in control now in place of Ben Ali? The generals, democratic in its intentions, but still general.
Tunisia, a country as small, moderate and devoid of strategic natural resources, was the testing ground. The test went very well and then decided to Washington groped with the bigger, but riskier, Egypt. Ours is not an insinuation, but a deduction. Founded. In recent days, the day the Daily Telegraph has discovered, buried in the Wikileaks site, one of the few documents ended up in the hands of the ambiguous Assange interesting. Documents revealed that as the autumn of 2008, the State Department in Washington had invited several bloggers and opponents of Mubarak, who wish to create the Democratic Alliance, which had as its ultimate goal to provoke a regime change. When? In 2011, before the presidential election. Scoop that the U.S. government and downplayed context.
But ask yourself: Who has, politically, the coup de grace to Ben Ali? And who put the ropes Mubarak? Also Barack Obama, who now can count on the army to Cairo and vice president, another general, Suleiman, the real strong man. The analogy with Tunis is striking.
everything fits. Today. Tomorrow, who knows, in Tunisia because the influence of Islamic fundamentalists is intangible, while in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood is very popular in the past have demonstrated the ability to move the squares, using appropriate weapons. This makes the ending more uncertain, but does not change the overall analysis.
There is a clear policy continuity between Bush and Obama. It is also operational. The meetings were held at the State Department in the fall of 2008, when Obama was still campaigning. So at this time has had Democrat Barack option drawn up by its predecessor, the hawk George. But not Remind. You get angry.
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